Deviation Actions
Literature Text
SUNSET
On July 23rd 2016 the UK voted 51% in favour of leaving the European Union. The decision caused the pound to plummet, devastated London’s stock exchange and sent shockwaves across Europe and the world.
The vote was mostly driven by British fears of immigrant hordes swarming in from France. In 2015 refugees had attempted to storm the Chunnel in Calais while 2016 had brought a new wave of refugees from the Syrian Civil War.
The referendum was so close that it threatened to tear the country apart. Scotland, which was 62% in favour of staying in the Union was suddenly regretting its earlier referendum to stay in the UK. The Scottish independence movement breathed fresh air and plans were made to hold another independence referendum before the UK was scheduled to leave the EU on March 29th 2019.
HISTORY
Northern Ireland had also voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU and there were rumblings that they too would hold an independence referendum before 2019. The IRA would finally get their wish, Ireland would be an island at last.
Such hopes were soon dashed however as reality set in. Ireland’s economy was now one of the infamous PIIGS, the underperforming economies which were holding the EU back. Meanwhile the predictions of doom for the UK economy were mostly overblown as the UK’s economy grew at 1.8% in 2016, second only to Germany’s 1.9% among the G7 nations. Inflation rose to 2.6% but unemployment continued to fall down to 4.8%, the lowest in 11 years.
Scottish independence was a major threat to the UK however as North Sea oil and gas could power and fund a Scottish republic in the event of independence. London would need to offer something to the Scott’s or risk losing a third of their country.
In 2017 London policy makers proposed a new free trade zone to replace the EU with London at its heart: The Commonwealth Union, a free trade and free movement bloc between the UK and certain members of the Commonwealth of Nations.
Membership of the Commonwealth would be determined by Huma Development Index or HDI, the standard measure of development used by the UN. The HDI was calculated by life expectancy, education level and GDP per capita, the so called ‘healthy, wealthy and wise’ equation. All members would need to meet or exceed the UK’s HDI of 0.909. This was to ensure that all members were stable, prosperous nations. Those nations who made the cut to join the UK were: New Zealand, Canada, Australia and Singapore.
The Commonwealth heads of government met in London on January 16th 2018 for their biennial meeting. In the months prior to the meeting, Prince William and Princess Catherine had toured the selected nations promoting the motherland along with their children: George and Charlotte. The duke and duchess of Cambridge argued the case for a more centralised Commonwealth. Their tour was well received in all the member nations though less so in Singapore. By the time it came for the Union Treaty to be ratified, the Singaporeans would be the only prospective member to not ratify. Instead, the Singaporeans would hold observer status while the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand would form the Union.
On October 17th 2018 the Queen gave royal assent to the Great Repeal Bill revoking the European Communities Act of 1972. This transferred all EU laws into British laws, giving British law makers time to review, repeal or reform those laws as they saw fit.
On March 29th 2019 the UK formally divorced the EU. That same afternoon the Commonwealth Union Bill came into effect.
On November 13th 2022, Queen Elizabeth II died peacefully in her sleep at the age of 96. Flags across the country were lowered as Britons recovered from the shock. At 11am Prince Charles was declared the new King, keeping his name he became King Charles III. His wife, Camilla Parker Bowles took the title of Princess Cohort.
The divorce from the EU brought hard times upon the British economy. With tariffs on imports to the continent, investor confidence waned and the price of exports rose, making the British less competitive. Before long it became clear that the only way the government could continue to raise money was through austerity measures.
Any rise in taxes would be met with furore so instead the government took a knife to public spending. Unlike the austerity measures imposed following the great recession, nobody was safe this time. Soon the public education budget was in the government’s sights and then that most sacred of British relics: the national health service.
ECONOMY
Together the Union would have a population of 134 million. Importantly, the Commonwealth would not be adopting a common currency. Finance experts attributed the Euro to much of the EU’s problems. Instead, all member countries would continue to trade in their national currency. Therefore, none of the members could ride the coat tails of more productive members.
A free trade zone would eliminate tariffs between member nations and allow for passport-free travel between them. As of 2017 the combined members would have a GDP of 5.9 trillion USD, the third largest economy in the world after the US and China. By 2030 this is expected to rise to over 7.2 trillion, keeping the Commonwealth in fourth place behind the US, China and India.
Nonetheless, the divorce from the EU brought great uncertainty to the UK economy. Immediately after the referendum results came through, the Pound and London Stock Exchange both entered free fall. The economy would recover over the coming year but it would take time.
The Brexiteers’ promise to spend the money saved by leaving the EU on the NHS proved to be completely bogus. With Theresa May’s conservatives in power, a cut in public spending was inevitable.
GOVERNANCE
In terms of governance, each of the members would continue to elect their own leaders who would then elect a team of representatives to the Commonwealth Council in London. Policy would be decided by a majority vote between the five representatives. Unlike the UN, no member would have a veto over the other members. This would be a meeting of equals. The Commonwealth Council would dictate trade and defence policy while each nation’s domestic politics would remain the realm of their respective parliaments. The British Monarchy is recognised by all members as the ceremonial head of the commonwealth.
DEFENCE
Finally, a plan was drawn up to integrate the commonwealth military and intelligence infrastructure. The Commonwealth Defence Forces would be divided between two commands: Atlantic Command comprising of the UK and Canada, and Pacific Command comprising of Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. Together the five nations would have a combined defence budget of 98 million USD, making it the third largest spender after the US and China.
Between them the Union would cover more than 18 million square kilometres, a larger area than the Russian Federation, and would need a military to match. Ultimately the realm would be protected by the UK’s nuclear umbrella, four Vanguard submarines would circle the globe, each holding 16 Trident II missiles, each missile holding 8 warheads. The Vanguards are scheduled to be replaced by the Dreadnought class in 2028.
Together the Commonwealth forces number more than 354,000 full time personnel, making them the 14th largest military force in the world. The key to the Commonwealth’s power projection however, would always be the navy.
The flagship of the Commonwealth Navy is the 70,000-ton aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth, soon to be joined by its sister ships the HMS Prince of Wales in 2020. Both carriers would fly the American F35B stealth multirole fighter. A further two helicopter carriers from the Royal Australian Navy further compliments the fleets air assets.
The Commonwealth Navy would include 7 destroyers, 6 British and 1 Canadian, with 3 Australian ‘air warfare destroyers’ taking to sea in 2018. Then there would be the 39 frigates from the various nations as well as 11 nuclear submarines and 10 conventional submarines.
The challenge, of course, was bringing all these resources together into a cohesive fighting force.
